Around the Markets

Organic Corn trading activity is picking up but prices remain stable with bids seen near $7.00 and offers for delivery in November and December, at $7.75. Yields have been strong, like conventual yields, which should drive activity as farmers run out of storage space.  The carry for corn remains near $0.25 per quarter. Non-gmo yellow #2 CIF remained steady at $0.10 premium over conventional for new crop delivery, as the robust yield weighs on premiums. While the harvest for conventional corn is nearly complete at approximately 91%, the organic harvest is just starting to accelerate.

Corn board futures prices have bounced back to the upper end of the 6-week range. Per the most recent commitment of trader’s report released for the date November 1, 2016, managed money added to both long and short futures and option positions.  Managed money, that is short futures and options, outnumber managed money that is long by approximately, 65K contracts down from 131K contracts, 3-weeks ago.

Mid-west organic soy bean trading activity is moderate, as robust yields seem to match the solid yields seen in conventional beans.  Prices remain stable for November and December delivery, but many buyers are waiting for prices to decline before they lock in Q1.  Storage space will soon become an issue for farmers, which could weigh on prices.

Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States, and his trade policies are an unknown that could potentially help bean prices climb. Given approximately 75% of organic beans are imported, new trade deals could reduce imports and could generate upward pressure on prices.

The quality of beans are exceptional, per market sources. Prices have drifted to the $17.20-17.75 range, with a carry for the first quarter of approximately 25 cents per bushel. The huge potential of the bean yields has weighed on non-gmo prices. Non-GMO soybean CIF for November and December deliver are trading $0.15 –  $0.35 above cash prices for new crop. Approximately 94% of conventional soybeans have been harvested, per the USDA.

Organic feed wheat prices are actively trading in the mid-west near the $7 handle.

After sagging below $0.35 per pound, bean oil prices have bounced as vegetable oil demand continues to grow. A disruption in supply of palm oil has been the catalyst for the rise in bean oil prices. Daily prices are forming a bull flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes.

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