12.20.2024
45z guidance fails to appear; government scrambles to pass spending bill
The US government spending bill failed twice in as many days. If a deal is not reached by midnight on Friday December 20, some federal services will...
Major packer steer reports include HNS at $39.50, BBS from $34.50 to $36, BS at $24 and CBS from $22 to $23 FOB plant. Cows also saw little movement, trading mostly at previous levels after a round or two of counters. China buyers are pressing for shipments to leave before November 1; however, suppliers are running out of any material that can meet that deadline. The question on the table is how much appetite China buyers will for hides and wet blue beyond that time?
Week-Ending Slaughter
The week’s estimated cattle slaughter was 648,000. The previous week’s kill was 658,000 and the corresponding week last year it was 647,908. Year-to-date slaughter at 24.566 is up 1.1% from 2018.
Today’s Market
The week wrapped with a small number of sales quoted, all within the previous week or two trading ranges.
China
Major American packers once again tried to raise the asking price—not on the offering list, but when someone gave a bid—but buyers showed little interest in chasing prices and increases failed to take hold.
While buying interest continued, most tanners are not willing to pay higher prices for American steer hides, claiming that the leather market remains slow. In addition to not wanting to pay more, a few regular buyers with firm interest indicate they do not want to buy hides with shipment after November because of the concern there will be an additional duty/tax in December if the trade war continues through the rest of the year. To play it safe, concerned Chinese tanners have told their sellers to make sure the shipment from the US will arrive in China port by December 1.
Leather business remains at the forefront of concern for Chinese tanners; however, as one major shoe leather tanner pointed out, “it is all about the leather business.” If it improves, Chinese tanners will not care about paying more money for the hides with shipment after November simply because it is not a big deal should the leather business get better. Tanners remain exceptionally cautious when they buy hides due to the very depressing leather market.
The cow-type hides remain a disaster to most of the sellers from the US and Europe. The price of some American cows hides of the lowest quality from the southern part of the states has reached the new low-price level after the Shanghai leather fair of US$6/$7 per hide C&F China.