12.20.2024
45z guidance fails to appear; government scrambles to pass spending bill
The US government spending bill failed twice in as many days. If a deal is not reached by midnight on Friday December 20, some federal services will...
Nearby soybean futures were marginally higher on Monday, with most contracts gaining less than 1/4 percent (January contract +1 cent per bushel). Technically-driven buying following a sharp sell-off on Friday drove the gains. Funds were reported buyers of 3,000 soybean contracts, 2,000 soybean meal contracts, and were reported sellers of 3,000 soybean oil contracts.
Long soybean meal/short soybean oil spreading weighed on soybean oil futures with most contracts losing about 1/2 percent (December contract -18 basis points per pound). The relatively modest decline masked a 60-basis-point trading range, which took prices about 1/2 percent higher late in the overnight session before steady selling at the opening of U.S. trading hours drove prices down to the low of the day. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of the proposal published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the Federal Register may have contributed to the early selling. However, The Jacobsen believes the plan will raise the demand for soybean oil in 2020.
The palm oil market was closed in observance of a national holiday.
Vegetable oil futures on the Dalian exchange were mixed with palm oil futures gaining a little more than 1/2 percent (January contract +28 yuan per tonne) to set fresh life-of-contract highs. Soybean oil contracts fell less than 1/4 percent (January contract -12 yuan per tonne) on optimism about progress in trade negotiations between representatives of the Chinese and U.S. governments.
Canola futures lost about 1/2 percent (January contract -C$2.30 per tonne) as technically drive selling combined with concerns about slowing export demand. Continued strength in the Canadian dollar stoked the export fears, which rose to the highest level against the U.S. dollar in more than three months on Monday.
Rapeseed futures were marginally mixed with nearby contracts down less than 1/4 percent (February contract -€0.25 per tonne) while deferred contracts gained less than 1/4 percent (November 2020 contract +€0.75). It was the fifth consecutive day of rising prices, which remain supported by crop losses from the drought in Europe last summer.