The demand for organic proteins has been on the rise over the past 4-years according to the Jacobsen insight. While demand for organic milk appears to have peaked, solid gains in both organic broiler and organic eggs has kept the trajectory of overall organic protein demand on the rise.  Organic broiler sales rose 10% year over year during the 2017/2018 season which were followed by a 3% increase during the 2019/2019 season. Organic egg sales rose nearly 7% year over year in 2017/2018 season and 3.25% during the 2018/2019 season.  Going forward the outlook is mixed.

The softening of the US economic outlook could reduce the demand for discretionary items which could include organic protein sales. The Jacobsen is forecasting that organic egg sales continue to rise by more than 2%, while organic broiler sales could slide and potential decline year over year. The Jacobsen also sees organic milk sales declining year over year in the 2019/2020 season.

It also appears that the Jacobsen organic protein demand index could be rising, after finding a trough in September of 2019. This is a seasonal trough, but the level is the lowest seen in the past 3-years. This could coincide with consumer sentiment which is mixed. While retail sales were softer than expected September, US equities have hit all-time highs.

The Jacobsen evaluates the trend in the 3-month moving average of the organic protein index. The index uses a weighted average to calculate total sales of organic proteins in the United States. While the trajectory of the 3-month moving average is positive, the level it should reach is short of the peak in sales reached during the 2018/2019 season. This points to a lower overall average in organic protein sales during the current season.