The 2020 production survey closed on Monday; we are eagerly diving into the data.  With over 400 responses, we have a great deal of input for our S&D balance sheets.  Market Intelligence reports, available to full Tier 1 subscribers, will draw on these balance sheets, which utilize all available data to develop a picture of supply and demand to inform our forecasting.  The hemp industry lacks key data, namely historical production data.

Production surveys fill the gap created by inadequate historical data.  We’ll follow up with a planting survey this summer, and a harvest survey in the fall.  Consistent surveys combined with increased data collection at the state level will allow us to project markets with far more accuracy.  Aside from the key policy issues that can have dramatic impact on demand for CBD, this year over year production data will produce valuable insights for decision makers.

We’ll also track the development of the new fiber and hempseed grain segments, which our survey confirms is a minor portion of the total plantings planned for this year.   Data is also confirming that Midwest and Northern Plains farmers are increasing fiber and grain production more than producers in other regions, but acreage for these crops for the most part is small to moderate. North of the border, where farmers have had years to develop hemp cultivation systems, and grain markets have been historically active, acreage for hempseed is generally far greater. South of the border, producers are experimenting with the crops, developing methods that work for their skillset or equipment line, in anticipation that market demand will increase in coming years.  Most industry analysts, including The Jacobsen’s, agree that fiber has the most potential for volume in the US as greater industry develops end uses and builds a supply chain to get there.

Many producers are planting CBG genetics this year, some at scale, on several hundred acres.  Most appear to be hedging, by planting some acreage to CBG, but predominantly to CBD.  Nonetheless, there will be an increase in CBG hemp planted this year.  It is also clear that a large number of farmers are simply experimenting with new varieties that are CBG dominant.  This is typical in agriculture, to trial new varieties on small scale, and in various field conditions.  The hemp industry needs this desperately with its nascent breeding segment and universally unstable seed genetics.  How these cultivars perform in various environments around the US is yet to be seen.  Producers ultimately drive the development of crop genetics.

Survey data also shows significant CBD biomass in storage from last year, which for many, will be a total loss.  This is an acceptable loss for some farmers, the reality of brand-new markets influenced by policy, compounded by inadequate technology and infrastructure.   Others will forgo planting hemp this year after COVID-19 provided just enough impetus to dissuade another go.  Other producers are gearing up again for cultivation on extensive acreage, both on speculation, and to feed their own extraction operations.

Thanks for your participation, and special thanks to RAWmarketplace for their assistance in the distribution of the 2020 Production Survey.  You can learn more about RAWmarketplace here: https://hemp.rawmarket.place/