Organic soybean/meal prices remain elevated in Europe but there could be some relief as early as late-June. Organic soybean meal prices are currently offered at 1K Euro per metric ton delivered into Northern Europe. There are not trades reported at this price and the bid-offer spread is enormous. Merchandisers are now saying that Chinese exports are offering prices down to 800-Euros per metric ton delivered ahead of the Q3. This would mean shipments already sent from China or shipments that will be delayed into the Q3. Merchandisers are telling The Jacobsen that the Chinese are holding their exports and the reasons they are using are not believable. Speculation is that some exporters are holding their grain shipments to hoard grain products until it becomes clear that global growth will stabilize.

Soybean planting is expected to rise according to The Jacobsen Planting Survey. The Organic Planting survey shows that farmers are expected to increase the number of soybean acres they intend to plant by 10% in the 2020/2021 season. Additionally, approximately 22% of the organic farmers that planted organic corn in 2020 plan to switch to soybeans.

Base on the organic yield the Jacobsen has collated for both organic corn and organic soybeans from their current planting survey the dollar figures that a farmer can generate from planting an acre of organic corn are sill above the dollar figure available for an acre of Organic soybeans.

The Jacobsen believes that production of organic soybeans in the US will rise in the 2020/2021 season, but the increase will only slightly dent the volume needed for a total demand of which 70% is satisfied with imports.