The organic grain market in Europe is inactive, and it appears that most consumers are covered until the new crop season. Organic soybean meal prices are offered at 780 per metric ton delivered in Northwestern Europe. Nearly all the organic soybean meal imported into the EU comes from China. Chinese exporters began to phase out shipments to the US in 2017. Organic corn prices for the Q4 are offered at 210 Euros in Ukraine FOB and 250 Euros in Romania FOB. Organic wheat prices are offered at 205 Euros FOB Ukraine.

Concerns over whether there will be sufficient organic soybean from Indian are rising. The market should expect volatility. If someone is short into the early Q4 right before the harvest, the market could spike. Organic soybean meal prices have been above 1,000 per short ton during the past decade. To combat the spread of COVID in India, which is growing at 14K cases per day, the Indian government announced that they will survey the coronavirus to all of New Delhi’s 29 million people. The issue remains in the supply chain. Organic soybean meal prices are currently offered at $625 per metric ton FOB India. The question is whether the physical material will be there when the market needs it.

Will Consumers Care More About Organic?

Bayer defended its purchase of Monsanto after it agreed to pay up to $10.9 billion to settle Roundup lawsuits. From Bayer’s point of view, the settlement did not change how the view Roundup and glyphosate. They continue to say it is safe and does not cause cancer. As part of the agreement, Bayer did not have to admit to any wrongdoing. The plan to continue to sell Roundup, but more importantly, they will be able to sell it without warning about the potential harm it may cause.  This follows a decision in California on Monday that barred the state from liability to the product as a carcinogen.