Heavy Texas Steer Prices & Retail Shoe Sales

Heavy Texas Steers (HTS) are a common hide selection used in footwear and the precipitous drop in price over the last several years is partly explained by a decrease in footwear sales as well as the influx of synthetic leather into the footwear market. With supply picking back up via stronger cattle slaughter numbers, it’s reasonable to expect the negative price pressure to continue as shoe sales continue to be depressed due to COVID-19.

Since 2014, HTS have been steadily falling in price, but not at the same rate as shoe sales. From January 2018 to June 2020, HTS have fallen to $18 per piece or 67 percent. For January of 2018 through April of 2020, the rate of decrease for retail shoe sales has been 15 percent. Again, the steeper rate of decrease in the HTS market can be attributed to increased usage of synthetics across much of the leather market, but 2020 levels are more acutely tied to the drop in total sales due to COVID-19 interruptions.

As production increases via robust cattle slaughter it’s reasonable to expect low prices to continue as sellers struggle to find demand for their product. In the short-term, HTS prices are disposed to be weak as limited consumer spending continues. An increase in shoe sales, as well as other consumer goods, is certainly supportive of higher prices but values are unlikely to return to mid-decade levels until sellers can find new demand outlets for product.

Figure 1.