RFS Mandates Based on Percentages not Gallons

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term-Energy Outlook (STEO) lowers the bar on gasoline and diesel consumption.  This in turn leads to less renewable fuel needed to satisfy the mandated requirements.  The percentage standards for required renewable fuel have not changed, just the volume needed to achieve the mandated requirement.

The EPA Final Rule for 2020 is based on percentage not volume.  Volumes are projected based on EIA fuel estimates but those estimates get reconciled with actual gasoline and consumption totals following the end of the year.  For 2020, EIA originally estimated 142.68 billion gallons of gasoline and 55.30 billion gallons of diesel to be consumed.

These estimates were created prior to the pandemic.  Since that time, EIA has lowered their gasoline and diesel estimates to…