LCFS Biomass-Based Diesel Q1 2020 Preview

California Air Resources Board (CARB) is scheduled to release their first quarter 2020 supply and demand data on July 31.  The Jacobsen expects biodiesel consumption to come in below CARB forecast and renewable diesel to be over forecast.  Strong renewable diesel margins continue to make RD the liquid molecule of choice in the California Market.

Historically, Q1 has not been a sterling quarter for RD.  Therefore, we have skewed our RD forecast slightly lower than we would otherwise expect.  The Jacobsen expects about 184 million gallons of RD to be consumed during the first quarter of the year.   Neste had a catalyst change scheduled during the second quarter at their Singapore plant, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they shipped more product ahead of the scheduled change.  The catalyst change was expected late in the second…