Organic soybean meal prices ticked up rising back to the $610 level FOB India for new-crop from below $600 a couple of weeks ago. Organic soybean prices have also increased, rising to $620 FOB India. Flooding rains that could impact the Indian harvest continue to generate volatility for new-crop organic prices. Domestic organic soybeans have been scooped up and most of the upcoming harvest is pre-sold.

Unfortunately, the soybean meal that is generated from domestic organic soybeans, will need to compete directly with imports that continue to remain less expensive that domestic US organic soybean meal prices. The Jacobsen has seen a range of organic soybean meal prices as low as $710 picked up in Michigan, to $780 picked up in Illinois.

Despite rising demand, it will take a slowdown of imports to raise prices. Demand has been on an uptick, with organic chicken slaughter by weight rising back to the highs seen in January. The 4-week moving average of organic chicken slaughter by weight, which removes some of the week to week volatility has rebounded back to the highest levels seen in 2020. The question is whether the actual slaughter will continue to rise, as most of the recent gains have been in the average weight of the birds at slaughter.

Despite the huge drop in organic chicken slaughter experienced in April and early May due to the closure of several slaughterhouses in the US due to the spread of COVID-19, organic chicken slaughter is down less than 0.5% for the first 33-weeks of 2020 on a year over year basis. Solid demand from home-cooking appears to be the driver of this continued demand.