Organic soybean prices remain buoyed and the Jacobsen is forecasting higher prices. While the demand for organic commodity feed has remained steady, there continues to be strong demand for food at the grocery stores across the US. According to the latest retail sales report released by the Consensus Burea (part of the US Commerce Department), monthly retail sales at grocery stores and supermarkets have increased 9.5% year over year rising from an 8.7% year-over-year increase reported in August. Grocery store sales surged in March but have eased until September.

The uptick in COVID-19 cases across the United States has likely been a catalyst for the higher year over year increase in grocery store sales. What is also interesting is that in the last two recessions recorded in the United States (2002-2003) and 2008-2009) retail sales at grocery store sales declined during those periods. This recession, generated by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is different and continues to drive grocery store sales at the expense of food service and restaurants.

A Look in the Rear View Mirror

Organic milk sales have been on the rise. The Jacobsen reported in June that it saw that organic milk sales increased approximately 10% year over year. This compares to a report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reports that US sales of total organic milk products for June 2020 were 237 million pounds, up 20.2% year over year, and up 14.4% in 2020. The bottom milk sales that are reported by the AMS cover a fraction of the total milk sales. Organic whole milk sales for June 2020,  102 million pounds, were up 18.9% year over year according to the AMS and up 17.6% during the same period in 2019. The AMS also Reduced-fat milk sales were 82 million pounds, up 23.2% from the previous year, and up 19.0% in 2020. The upshot is that organic milk sales are rising.