Vegetable Oil Markets May Be Near An Inflection Point

Soybean oil prices continued to decline following the long holiday weekend, as expectations for improvement in South American growing conditions triggered speculative liquidation across the soybean complex. The benchmark contract fell a little more than 1/4 percent (March contract -15 basis points per pound). However, the declines in deferred contracts were larger. Palm oil futures were also lower as the weakness in soybean oil prices and continued concerns about slowing demand drove additional selling. The benchmark contract dropped about 2 1/2 percent (April contract -83 ringgit per tonne), falling to the lowest level since December 14.

The decline in palm oil futures may be nearing an end. The sharp drop in prices will likely trigger restocking, particularly from Indian and Chinese buyers. Also, palm oil supply in…