What’s Ahead in the FOG Markets?
Rising Tide – What’s Ahead in the FOG Markets Ryan Standard, Fastmarkets / The Jacobsen The following video is a capture from The Jacobsen Fuels & Feedstocks Virtual Conference...
Organic soybean prices are rising. Prices in the mid-West were reported up to $35 per bushel. The average trade reported in Iowa was $32 per bushel. Despite the acceleration in the price of organic soybeans, the crush rate still makes these prices attractive if organic soybean meal is trading for $1,500 per short ton and organic soybean oil is selling for $0.70-$0.75 per pound.
Conventional soybeans on the NCDEX hit a record high in dollar terms, rising to $1,080 per metric ton. This breakout could continue if the dollar weaken against the rupee. There is still some premium for organic soybeans, but it has collapsed as convention prices have climbed.
While there are no organic soybeans headed to the U.S. from India, the price would likely place them near $1400/$1600 per metric ton CNF Baltimore. Organic soybeans create a customs issue as the chance of rejection is higher than refined products like organic soybean meal. After customs clearing and transloading, which could add $80 per metric ton, India’s lower price of imported organic soybean would place them near $1,480 per metric ton or $40.25 per bushel. It almost makes $33 per bushel midwest look cheap.
There is some evidence that additional revenue allocated to the National Organic Program has created some positive outcomes. The NOP credits more staff as a reason for more efficient enforcement actions. The use of subpoenas and fines are being made possible by staff investigations supported by the evidence. The increase in enforcement has led to the decertification of 679 operations in 45 countries through suspension or revocation. Fertilizer tainted with prohibited pesticides is the top infraction. The sale of non-organic grain as organic and an organic compliance probe involving livestock are among the NOP’s other significant investigations.