Lack of Clarity from EPA Results in Volatile Week for RINs

Leaked reports of lower RVOs led to a sell off in the RIN market just over a week ago, but additional information recieved may be somewhat contrary to those reports. Sources have indicated to The Jacobsen that the EPA has proposed to retroactiely roll back the 2020 RVO and intends ot roll back the 2021 RVO from the 2020 level. This could mean that they intend to minimize the ethanol gap (10% blend wall), which requires the gap to be filled by biomass-based diesel gallons, which further inflates biomass-based diesel and ethanol RINs. However, the EPA might be limited in its actions. 

Lowering the overall mandate beyond the cellulosic reduction would be outside the scope allowed unless there was a general waiver or the RFS reset applied. I could be mistaken, so if there are any RFS scholars reading, please write in.  The RFS has mandates for cellulosic production, biomass-based diesel…