Refiners Betting on RF$ RIN Relief   

Refiners are betting heavily that the Biden playbook on RINs will be the same one used when he was then vice-president, back in 2015.  Like what we are seeing play out in 2021, back in 2015, the EPA and White House faced another troubling situation where RIN prices were at or near all-time highs.  Blend wall concerns had forced biodiesel RINs to climb and ethanol RINs to trade near the D4 in price.

Back then, the EPA and White House did not release RVO’s for 2014 and 2015 until December of 2015. The total renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2014 were reduced below 2013 and then began to build once again.  The advent of granting small refinery exemptions to nearly every refiner that applied began in earnest in 2016 and helped to keep RIN prices at manageable levels through 2020.

In early 2020 RIN blend wall concerns once again began to bubble.  Biodiesel RINs…