Organic soybean prices have been sideways this summer, with light trading and uncertainty about supply and demand, as buying practices and trade flows shift.  Market participants tell Fastmarkets that organic soybean deliveries from Argentina in 2023 are estimated to fall to 40 percent of 2022 export figures.

Argentina delivered just shy of 110,000 mt in 2022.  A 40 percent decline in organic soybeans from Argentina creates a theoretical shortfall of 66,000 mt.  The chart below reflects the latest relevant organic soybean trade data. Argentine soybean imports are typically heaviest in the third quarter.  The supply picture becomes clearer as the year progresses, but this uncertainty preoccupies anyone long on organic soybeans.

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