The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the September Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today. The report showed a projected decline in gasoline consumption for 2023 and 2024 coupled with an expected rise in 2023 diesel consumption. The EIA raised the 2023 ethanol production outlook while lowering the 2024 forecast. Ethanol consumption is seen moving lower in 2023 and 2024. Lastly, production and consumption of biodiesel and renewable diesel is expected to rise in 2023 and 2024.
Gasoline consumption is expected to trend lower due to the U.S. Census Bureau projecting fewer people of working age, as more “boomers” enter retirement. Retired individuals traditionally and statistically drive less than working individuals. The 2023 gasoline consumption forecast was lowered 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.87 million bpd, and the 2024 forecast was reduced 180,000 bpd to 8.73 million bpd.
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Fastmarkets' research team...