Trading was very quiet today with only limited changes reported. Indications were given in a wide range on nearly all markets due to a big drop in heating oil (ULSD) prices, as well as a drop in the soybean oil market. Most of October seems to be well bought and sold and neither side seemed to feel an urgency to step into the market today.
The November heating oil (ULSD) futures contract fell 17.76 cts/gal today, the biggest day-on-day move since February, but the biggest move for a day that wasn’t the first day of the month since November futures fell 35.89 cts/gal on October 31 last year.
The difference between today and October of last year, or February, is the RIN environment and overall profitability levels. Prices on October 31 of last year were $4.1909/gal for ULSD and D4 RINS averaged $1.8650, today RINS are below a $1 and the November ULSD contract settled at $3.0178.
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