05.17.2024
Uncertainty with 45z tax credit may affect Q1 2025 biofuel contracts
The expiring BTC provides a one dollar per gallon blenders credit up front with an additional 30 to 40 cents of credit to producers on the backend. Crimson...
2023 RIN values remained consistent, and elevated, between April and July. The D4 biomass-based diesel RIN traded near $1.50 and occasionally climbed as high $1.60 per RIN during the period. The market seemed to expect the EPA would revise the 2023 mandate higher, given the sharply increased renewable diesel capacity coming online.
On June 21, 2023, the EPA announced their final mandate decision, and it did not include an increase in D4 blending. RIN values fell approximately 12 cents on the news, but recovered over the next few weeks, and traded as high as $1.60 again in July.
July marked the last high-water mark for RINs. Prices began to slowly roll lower, picking up momentum in September and falling off a small cliff in early October. D4 RINs reached a closing low of just under 80 cents per RIN Oct 10, 2023, but have experienced a slight recovery since then.
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