Strong 2024 D4 Production Weighs on RINs

Strong 2024 D4 Production Weighs on RINs

The percentage standards for the 2024 Renewable Fuel Standard were made official back in June 2023 based on the 2024 fuel outlook at the time. Originally, 21.54 billion RINs were expected to be produced through renewable fuel blending. Biomass-based diesel (D4) was expected to produce 4.86 billion RINs (3.04 billion gallons) and conventional renewable fuel (ethanol D6) 15 billion RINs.

The EIA’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) indicates fuel use expectations have changed. The March STEO shows increased gasoline and diesel consumption estimates, leading to increased renewable fuel blending obligations.

The recent fuel estimates, if they prove actual, would require 21.74 billion RINs to be produced through of renewable fuel blending. D4 production would rise to 4.91 billion D4 RINs (3.07 billion gallons) and D6 would climb to 15.14 billion RINs.

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