In September 2023 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released the Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment (SRIA) aimed at changing the LCFS compliance curve. Current compliance calls for a 20% reduction from a 2010 baseline in the carbon intensity of transportation fuel by 2030. The proposed amendments would increase compliance to a 30% reduction by 2030 with additional step downs leading to a 90% reduction by 2045. The proposed amendments could lead to an additional 558 million credits needed to meet compliance. Under the SRIA, LCFS credit prices are expected to range between $120 to $180.

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