The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) showed a decrease in 2024 fuel consumption estimates. This lowered renewable fuel blending estimates for the year, leading to a potentially larger surplus of renewable identification numbers (RINs).

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) renewable volume obligations (RVOs) issued by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provide percentage standards applied to the initial mandated forecast at that time of release.

The percentage standards translate into volumes based on the estimated consumption forecast. The actual RVOs become known over time but use the same percentage standards applied to the original mandate, which created the initial volume expectations.

The original RVO forecast called for 21.54 billion gallons of renewable fuel to be blended into the US transportation fuel pool.

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