Will soybean oil prices fall to incentivize US biodiesel production in 2025?

Will soybean oil prices fall to incentivize US biodiesel production in 2025?

Biodiesel margins have significantly improved in the US over the past two weeks as soybean oil futures declined and prices for renewable identification numbers (RINs) increased. But several biodiesel producers told Fastmarkets they are slowing discretionary blending due to the lapsing $1-per-gallon blenders tax credit (BTC), which lapses in December.

The clean fuel production credit (CFPC) is set to replace the BTC on January 1, 2025, but the information needed to price the CFPC has not been made available yet.

The market is going to have to find a way to make up the $1-per-gallon BTC, which is integral to margins, Fastmarkets understands.

A producer told Fastmarkets that, despite recently improved margins, the loss of the BTC leaves biodiesel margins at negative $0.55 per gallon.

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