Market sources expect more turbulent times ahead for US vegetable oil market

Market sources expect more turbulent times ahead for US vegetable oil market

To kick off 2024, US soybean oil futures sat below $0.49 per lb in Chicago. Over the course of the year, prices lost about 17% in value to end 2024 just shy of $0.40 per lb — or the cheapest edible oil in the world.

As US soybean oil prices crumbled, palm oil prices gradually surged in 2024.

By August, palm oil — normally the cheapest vegetable oil globally that trades at a discount of $30-40 per tonne to soybean oil — had moved into a sharp premium instead.

Then in October, for the first time since 2022, Argentina’s soyoil basis premiums rose above those in the US, making the US Gulf export market a more attractive option for foreign buyers. This led to a surge in new US soybean oil export sales in the final weeks of 2024.

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