Crude Oil Carbon Intensity is Increasing, Leading to Increased Program Deficits

Near the end of 2019, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) notified stakeholders that the crude oil used in California’s transportation pool was getting dirtier.  CARB posts an Annual Crude Average carbon intensity (CI) calculation pursuant to section 95489(b)(3) of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Regulation every year.

CARB determines the annual crude CI score by using a rolling three-average and compares it to the rolling three-year baseline average CI score.  The 2018 scoring was completed in late 2019 and pushed the rolling average crude CI score over the baseline for the first time.  The rolling average CI score was 12.14 gCO2e/MJ, which was 0.23 gCO2e/MJ above the baseline CI score of 11.91 gCO2e/MJ.

Dirtier crude must be accounted for within the LCFS program. So, beginning in January of 2020 CARB began tacking on 0.23 gCO2e/MJ to every…