The prospect of lower renewable volume obligations (RVOs) from the EPA and the increase in reports that lower numbers are to be expected at any time contributed great tumult to the RIN markets yesterday, and today to the distiller’s corn oil (DCO) market. Ethanol RINS for 2021 (E21) are down 18.1 percent over the last week.

News outlets have reported that Democratic senators have gotten word that the RVO announcements are going to be made as soon as today and that lower numbers should be expected. Sources have long suggested to The Jacobsen that lower numbers should be expected as the Biden administration attempts to thread the political needle between ag and petroleum producing states. The same sources have suggested that the lower RVOs will likely be offset, politically, by fewer small refinery exemptions in the future.

Some sellers were attempting to get ahead of the potential bearishness in trading today. DCO prices consolidated around an average of 52 – 52.5 FOB…