05.17.2024
Uncertainty with 45z tax credit may affect Q1 2025 biofuel contracts
The expiring BTC provides a one dollar per gallon blenders credit up front with an additional 30 to 40 cents of credit to producers on the backend. Crimson...
STEO Forecast and 2024 RVO’s
The RFS renewable volume obligations (RVOs) issued by the EPA provide percentage standards applied to the initial mandated forecast at that time of release. The percentage standards translate into volumes based on the estimated consumption forecast. The actual RVOs become known over time but use the same percentage standards applied to the original mandate, which created the initial volume expectations.
Reviewing the March STEO and applying the appropriate percentage standards, EIA projected 2024 gasoline consumption is above the original volume estimate and has increased the implied ethanol mandate from 15 billion gallons to 15.14 billion gallons. This is above last month’s projection of 15.10 billion gallons.
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