Record high beef prices are on the horizon as cattle inventories sink to historically low levels.  As food prices remain elevated, some estimates show retail beef prices increasing by as much as 25 percent this year.  USDA reported 87.2 million head on January 1, 2024, a decline of two percent from the previous year and the lowest inventory of cattle and calves since 1951.

The cattle inventory is projected to decline further in 2024 after producers retained one percent fewer replacement heifers.  This will have knock on effects in organic beef markets which are often already limited to what producers can raise on farm in a certified organic cow/calf system.  Anecdotally, organic cattle inventory is estimated to have declined more precipitously than conventional stock.

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