Crude glycerin supply is highly correlated with biodiesel production; it is a co-product of the biodiesel production process, and it remains uncertain how many US biodiesel producers will be running in January.

Uncertainty surrounding 2025 biodiesel production is due to a lack of clarity on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit (CFPC). Several US biofuel producers plan to idle their plants for maintenance, citing the CFPC as a major issue preventing them from pricing the market, Fastmarkets heard.

“Given the uncertainty, we are taking a planned maintenance approach to January with hopes that the CFPC situation will become resolved. If not, we could be down for longer,” one biodiesel producer told Fastmarkets.

The biodiesel production uncertainty affects the glycerin market. Purchasers of glycerin are unable to gauge supply because biodiesel producers cannot commit to production heading toward the end of the year, Fastmarkets heard.

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