Fats, Oils, & Fuels Webinar 9/15/20: Customer Q&A
Video shorts from the Fats, Oils, & Fuels Webinar Report Our team of Senior Analysts break down questions from the live Webinar audience during the call on Tuesday, September...
Throughout history, tools have enabled amazing human achievements. At The Jacobsen, we’ve invested in building a modern, cutting-edge toolset to aid our team of Senior Analyst. In less than two years, we’ve developed a platform that gives our clients an unfair advantage in the market.
Introducing our newest “team member”, Sage.
Sage is our augmented intelligence platform built around price forecasting and refining our ability to better predict market trends. Sage does the heavy data analysis, comparisons and algorithm adjustments to continually improve our price forecasting. Every report generated by Sage is reviewed by a senior team of analysts to interpret the data and ensure the patterns make sense with our understanding of the marketplace.
Based on 1-month ahead forecasting, the dark blue line indicates how off the Futures Market was for predicting the price accurately. The light blue line is The Jacobsen forecast. On average, the Futures Market was off 7.7% and The Jacobsen was off 5.9%.
Based On 1-Month Ahead Forecasting
The dark blue line indicates how off the Futures Market was for predicting the price accurately. The light blue is The Jacobsen forecast. On average, the Futures Market was off 12.7% and The Jacobsen was off 10.8%.
Based On 1-Month Ahead Forecasting
Since there is no Futures Market for UCO, the line here looks at The Jacobsen forecast vs the actual price, off on an average of 3% of the actual price.
Humans come with bias which is nearly impossible to detect. Sage is purely driven by data, not by desired outcomes. Additionally, the Jacobsen has no positions in the market so you can rest assured that our assessment of future market movements is purely based on data and experience, not by our desires or agenda.
Every forecast generated by Sage is reviewed by the platforms’ algorithms so it can self-adjust and learn from its own mistakes. The results of the forecasting accuracy are shared with our customers for review and establishing the degree of trust in our reporting.
Our unique history of 150+ years in the Agriculture space has allowed us to amass data and experience that is unrivaled and proprietary. Sage sits atop this mass of data where it pulls out insights and patterns that are hidden from the human eye. It’s not just our data either, it also has access to a vast array of public data to continually learn from and grow.
How is Sage used?
Sage provides the backbone to our forecasts. Based on its learnings, it formulates forecasting data hinged on what it has learned from historic projections and pattern recognition.
Are all forecasts “Powered by Sage”?
No, every forecast that is “Powered by Sage” is labeled that way in the bottom right corner of the chart. If you see this indicator, it means we have an accuracy report to go with the chart so you can validate for yourself how accurate Sage is at forecasting the results.
How much data goes into Sage?
It depends on the commodity. In most cases, it’s pulling from over 10 years of daily, weekly and monthly data. Most of the time the sources are wide and varied to help give Sage a balanced picture.
Are humans reviewing the forecast?
Yes, every forecast is reviewed and tweaked by our Senior Analysts to help account for certain events that are beyond the “senses” of Sage. Examples include political, social or economic incidents that are completely unpredictable.