2020 Renewable Fuels & Feedstock Outlook

2020 Renewable Fuels & Feedstock Outlook

Last Updated: 09.22.2020

Our team of Senior Analysts has compiled a comprehensive report on the biomass-based fuels market looking ahead till 2030.

Synopsis

Major refiners have started the conversion to renewable fuels. This monumental change will exert pressure on the feedstock market. This report looks at the fundamentals behind this change including supply & demand, forecasting stocks, governmental policy implications as well as a deeper dig into the project currently underway plus those rumored on the horizon. 250+ Pages.

Options

  • Basic option for just the report data.
  • Premium option for quarterly video updates with our Senior Team.

Major Sections

  • 10 Year Fuel Demand
  • RD and Sustainable Aviation Fuel & Co-Processing.
  • RFS2, BTC and Federal Landscape
  • LCFS and Similar Programs
  • Canadian Federal and Provincial Market Expansion
  • Crop and Veg Oil Markets
  • Low Carbon Intensity Fats & Oils Market
  • Agriculture Industry Snapshot
  • International Feedstock Market
  • Future Feedstocks and Processing Trends

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“The future of agriculture crops and waste products for the production of fuel is the single largest opportunity for struggling US farmers today and it isn’t just Corn and Soybeans.”

– John Cusick, Senior Analyst at The Jacobsen

We’ve Modeled The Scenarios For You

CARB Forecasts Implications

We updated our proprietary balance sheets with CARBS projections looking at the impact on LCFS till 2030 and the implications for feedstock balance sheets using CARB’s forecasted demand.

The Jacobsen Forecast

We have updated CARBS forecast with our own methodology, adjusting assumptions to the latest trends.  We have included announced, and funded RD projects that shows a significantly larger contribution to the LCFS program than is currently budgeted.  We look at the implication from this larger footprint at the feedstock markets.

Aggressive Scenario

Taking our 10 year forecast and factoring in rumors, innuendo, and technologies like co-processing, the size of the market could be significantly larger. We examine how these factors could impact demand.


Full Table of Contents

  1. Introduction: Jacobsen 10 Year Fuel Demand.(Page 3)
    • 10 Year Forecast For Liquid Biomass Feedstocks
    • Processing Forecasts: High, Middle, and Low Scenarios
  2. Renewable Distillate: Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Co-Processing Is Advancing To The Market.(Page 6)
    • Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Market
    • Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Complex
    • “HOBO Spread” 5 Year Historical
    • RIN Prices
    • Treatment Via U.S. Incentives
    • Obligated Parties Managing Compliance Burden
    • Processing Of Liquid Biomass Feedstocks
    • Renewable Diesel Production
    • Renewable Diesel Expansion
    • Coming Soon And Rumored Renewable Diesel Production
    • EU Conversion RD / HVO
    • Co-Processing
    • North American Processing Trends
    • Low Carbon Frontrunners
    • Merchant Frontrunners
    • Relative Market Size Of Crude Oil Refined, Vegetable Oils And Low CI
    • California State Refineries
      • Petroleum Refineries
      • Biodiesel Refineries
      • Renewable Diesel And Co-Processing Refineries
      • California Refineries
    • Washington State Refineries
      • Petroleum Refineries
      • Potential Washington Refinery Demand
  1. EPA, RFS2, BTC And The Federal Landscape Outlook In The United States

(Page 36)

  • RFS2 Program Overview
  • Program Specifics
  • Nesting Provision
  • RFS And RINS
  • RFS2 Waivers
  • RFS2 Reset
  1. LCFS Markets Driving Decision Making: California And Oregon Today. Washington In The Works. Midwest And Northeast Now In Motion.(Page 45)
  • California LCFS
  • LCFS History
  • LCFS CARB Forecast
  • Program Requirements
  • Credit Calculation
  • LCFS Credit Value In Terms Of Feedstock Cents Per Pound
  • LCFS Credit Calculations Per Feedstock Per Dollar
  • Status Of LCFS
    • Expansion
    • Components
    • Regulated Parties
    • Exemptions
    • Major LCFS Amendment Changes
    • Compliance Schedule For Diesel Fuel, Gasoline, Jet Fuel And their Substitutes
    • Declining Carbon Intensity Curve
    • Diesel Consumption And Deficit Generation
    • LCFS Deficits And Liquid Diesel Fuel Substitute Credits
    • Reliance On Light Duty Vehicle Electrification
  • California LCFS Market Data
    • LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Production Volume
    • LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Credit Generation Volume
    • LCFS Banked Credits
    • LCFS Banked Credits Outlook
    • LCFS Market Outlook
    • LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Volumes
    • RD/BD Demand Vs Compliance Difficulties
    • Low CI Score Impact On Credit Generation
    • RNG And CNG Credit Generation Vs CARB Projections
    • LCFS Liquid Biofuel Volume Forecast
    • Liquid Biofuel Actual Volumes
    • LCFS Liquid Biofuel Credit Forecast
    • Liquid Biofuel Actual Credits
    • Transforming Feedstock Mix In Renewable Diesel
    • Dominate Feedstocks For Biodiesel
    • Petroleum Elimination Goal
    • California Market Snapshot
    • California LCFS Summary
  • Oregon Clean Fuels Program
    • Oregon Market Snapshot
    • Oregon Clean Fuel Program Overview
    • CFP History
    • CFP Requirements
    • 3 Ways To Obtain CI Values In CFP
    • Small Importers And Exemptions
    • Oregon Compliance Schedule
    • Monthly Credit Transfer Data
    • North American Markets Considering An LCFS Type Program
  • Puget Sound Clean Fuel Standard
    • Washington Market Snapshot
    • Washington Forecast
    • Washington State and Puget Sound -Proposed
    • CFS Purpose And Duty
    • CFS Basics
    • Carbon Intensity Reduction Benchmarks For Diesel, Alternative Jet Fuel And Diesel Substitutes.
  • New York Clean Fuel Standard
    • New York Market Snapshot
    • New York Forecast
    • New York LCFS -Proposed
  • Colorado Clean Fuel Standard
    • Colorado Market Snapshot
    • Colorado Forecast
    • Colorado LCFS Feasibility Study
  • Utah Clean Fuel Standard
    • Utah Market Snapshot
    • Utah Forecast
    • Utah LCFS –The Utah Roadmap
  • Midwest Clean Fuel Standard IA, SD, & MN
    • Iowa Market Snapshot
    • Iowa Forecast
    • South Dakota Market Snapshot
    • South Dakota Forecast
    • Minnesota Market Snapshot
    • Minnesota Forecast
    • Midwest Clean Fuel Policy Initiative
  • Brazil Clean Fuel Standard
    • Brazil LCFS
  1. Canadian Federal And Provincial LCFS/GHG Market Expansion(Page 136)
  • Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard
  • British Columbia LCFS
    • History
    • Requirements
    • Performance
  1. Crop And Virgin Vegetable Oil Markets(Page 145)
    • Market Drivers
    • Vegetable Oil Grades
    • Vegetable Oil Refining Facilities
    • Soybean Planted Acreage
    • Soybean Crush Margins And Product Prices
    • Soybean Oil Supply Drivers
    • Soybean Oil Trade Flows
    • Soybean Oil Production and Processing
    • Soybean Processing Expansion
    • Soybean Processing Economics
    • Investment with Feedstock Upgrading
    • Soybean Oil Production And Consumption
      • High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
      • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
      • Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
    • North American Canola Crushing Facilities
    • Canola Oil Pricing
    • Canola Oil Crush
    • Canola Oil Supply
    • Canola Oil Usage
    • Canola Oil Production & Consumption
      • High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
      • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
      • Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  1. Low Carbon Intensity Fats And Oils Markets(Page 180)
    • North American Fat Market Synopsis
    • North American Beef Packers (Tallow Supply Drivers)
    • North American Tallow Production
    • North American Tallow Suppliers
    • Tallow Suppliers In Canada
    • Tallow Market Drivers
    • Independent Tallow Renderers
    • Cattle Slaughter
    • Tallow Rendering Facilities
    • Technical Tallow Historicals
    • West Coast Bleachable Fancy Tallow Historicals
    • West Coast (Export) Tallow Historicals
    • Tallow Production And Consumption
      • High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
      • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
      • Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
    • Distillers Corn Oil Market
    • Top Corn Oil Producers And Locations
    • Distillers Corn Oil Demand And Pricing
    • & Canada Ethanol Plants
    • Distiller’s Corn Oil IL (Benchmark) Historicals
    • Corn Oil Production and Consumption
      • High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
      • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
      • Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection

 

    • Outlook for Used Cooking Oil and Yellow Grease
    • COVID Update
    • Used Cooking Oil IL (Benchmark) Historicals
    • UCO North And South California Historicals
    • Yellow Grease Dlvd CA Historicals
    • Yellow Grease And Used Cooking Oil Specifications
    • Yellow Grease And UCO Suppliers
    • Yellow Grease & UCO Outlook
    • S. Yellow Grease And UCO Production & Consumption
      • High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
      • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
      • Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  • North America Choice White Grease
  • North American Pork Packers (Choice White Grease Drivers)
  • North American Choice White & Lard Suppliers
  • Choice White Grease Oil IL (Benchmark) Historicals
  • Choice White Grease Production & Consumption
    • High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
    • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
    • Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  • North American Poultry Fat Suppliers
  • Poultry Fat Production & Consumption
    • High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
    • Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
    • Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  1. Agriculture Industry Snapshot (Page 258)
  • ADM Soybean and Canola Oil Production & Processing
  • ADM North American Infrastructure
  • AGP Soybean Production & Processing
  • AGP North American Infrastructure
  • Bunge Soybean Production & Processing
  • Bunge North American Infrastructure
  • Cargill Soybean and Canola Oil Production & Processing
  • Cargill North American Infrastructure
  • Louis Dreyfus Soybean Oil Production & Processing
  • Miscellaneous Soybean Plants
  • Canola Processing Plants
  • Soy/Canola Oil Refining Capacity
  • Miscellaneous Soy/Canola Oil Refining Capacity
  1. International Feedstock Market (Page 272)
  • Global Tallow Production
  • Global Fats Production
  • Australia & New Zealand
  • Asia
  • South America
  • Europe
  • Market Outlook
  1. Future Feedstocks And Processing Trends(Page 287)
    • Market Intelligence
    • Oilseed Crops
    • Trends And Research On Oilseed Crops
    • Feedstock Readiness
    • Oilseed Crops: Lessons Learned
    • Microorganisms
    • Algae
    • Algae Research
    • Billion Ton Report
    • Commercial Initiatives
    • Future Feedstocks Outlook
  1. Future Conversion Technology (Page 300)
  • Pyrolysis
  • Sugar To Hydrocarbons
  • Fischer Tropsch
  • Biomass To Liquids
  • Hydrotreating
  1. Appendix(Page 311)
    • Feedstock Specifications
    • Feedstock Yields
    • Upper-Middle-Lower Case Scenarios
    • Long-Term Balance Sheets Analysis And Projections

The landscape, technical details, and overlooked information, all in one place.

CARB VS ACTUAL

Historical analysis of CARB’s forecasted credit generation vs actual for the program to date.

COMPARITIVE SCENARIOS

The Jacobsen has created 2 additional case scenarios to explore the larger volume of rumored Renewable Distillate production potentially coming at the market.

PROJECT MONITOR

Announced project monitor – creating timeline for demand increases

BALANCE SHEETS

Low CI Feedstock supply and demand balance sheets and forecasts. Including UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soy and Canola Oil.

844+

DATA STREAMS

52+

DISCUSSIONS WITH INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT INSIDERS

Materials Researched, Analyzed and Produced by Our Team of Senior Analyst

John Cusick

Consulting Manager / Sr. Analyst Biodiesel

John Cusick

John Cusick has 15 years of experience as a trader in biodiesel and biodiesel feedstock. His career has included work for the trading upstart RBF Port Neches, Texas, the largest biodesel production facility in the US, along with Morgan Stanley Commodities, Trafigura, Glencore and Imperium Renewables. He has successfully navigated the complex and challenging relationship ... read more

Bob Lane

Senior Analyst - Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil and Grain

Bob Lane

Bob Lane holds an MBA and a BBA in finance from Loyola University in Chicago. He has experience in real estate asset management and spent more than 15 years as a professional analyst and trader for options, futures and equities on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. ... read more

Ryan Standard

Director of PRA Ops & Senior Analyst - U.S and Intl Animal Fats & Proteins

Ryan Standard

Ryan Standard earned a degree in English literature and history from Monmouth College, while maintaining a parallel track in economics. With a background in logistics and sales, he joined The Jacobsen in 2007 as an analyst and the editor of the Animal Fats and Feed Bulletins, and contributor to the Biodiesel Bulletin. He has built ... read more

Frequently Asked Questions

Who should buy this report? Everyone who participates in the soybean oil, canola oil, and waste oils as well as animal fats markets, given the impact these fuel programs are having on traditional pricing hierarchy. Equity analysts covering LCFS influenced bottom lines, which now range from Major Petroleum Refiners to Renderers and Crushers to Renewable Fuel producers.
What makes this report different?  The Jacobsen has tracked and monitored the LCFS program since it’s inception. We look at how these programs have functioned to date. Our team examins what is happening concerning biofuels and biomass-based diesel where present demand comes to the liquid biomass feedstock market. Using this foundational information, we will use data and advanced modeling to update our years five-year forecast. In addition, The Jacobsen forecasts scenarios based on A) the present swell of Renewable Diesel production anticipated for the 2021 – 2025 period and B) potential for Co-processing technology to further demand in the 2025 – 2030 time frame.
How are your forecasting methods better than others? We’ve been honing our forecasting over the last few years using an assortment of AI and Machine Learning. Right now our team is up to over 700 data streams that are analyzed and parsed forward. As time goes on, we compare our results to actuals and continually refine our forecast on a weekly basis.
Will I have any time to discuss the findings with The Jacobsen? Yes, every client gets up to 2 hours of private discussion time with our Senior Analyst team.
Are you providing any subsequent data updates to the forecast? Yes, we’ll continue the discussion on a weekly basis on our Market Intelligence Report for Biofuels. This is a separate subscription which nicely pairs with the Multi-Client Report.

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Keep Track of the Conversion to Renewable Fuels on our special section: Renewable Fuels Watch