2020 Outlook - The Jacobsen

Planning Infrastructure Investments in 2020?
You’ll want to read this report!

Our 2020 Outlook Report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasting for the biomass-based diesel and feedstock space.

Our team of Senior Analysts has compiled a comprehensive report on looking forward to 2030.

250+ page slide deck

2 hours of private time with our Senior Analysts (Optional addition)

Balance sheets for UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soybean Oil, and Canola Oil.

Access to our Infrastructure Project Monitor. Looking at new construction, retrofitting, and announcements.

For more information or to purchase the report, please email george@thejacobsen.com or fill out the form below.

We’ve Considered All the Scenarios

The report in three-segments.

CARB Forecasts Implications

We updated our proprietary balance sheets with CARBS projections looking at the impact on LCFS till 2030 and the implications for feedstock balance sheets using CARB’s forecasted demand.

The Jacobsen Forecast

We have updated CARBS forecast with our own methodology, adjusting assumptions to the latest trends. We have included announced, and funded RD projects that shows a significantly larger contribution to the LCFS program than is currently budgeted. We look at the implication from this larger footprint at the feedstock markets.

Aggressive Scenario

Taking our 10 year forecast and factoring in rumors, innuendo, and technologies like co-processing, the size of the market could be significantly larger. We examine how these factors could impact demand.

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Full Table of Contents

Introduction: A Changing Landscape For Biomass Based Diesel Feedstocks (Page 1)
- Fuel Refineries Are Evolving
- Low Carbon Fuel Headlines
- 10 Year Forecast For Liquid Biomass Feedstocks
- Relative Market Size Of Diesel, Aviation, Marine, Veg Oils And Low CI
- Demand Vs Capacity
Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel And Co-Processing Is Coming To The Market. (Page 13)
- S. Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Market
- S. Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Complex
- “HOBO Spread” 5 Year Historical
- RIN Prices
- Treatment Via U.S. Incentives
- Obligated Parties Managing Compliance Burden
- Processing Of Liquid Biomass Feedstocks
- Renewable Diesel Production
- Renewable Diesel Expansion
- Coming Soon And Rumored Renewable Diesel Production
- EU Conversion RD / HVO
- Co-Processing
- North American Processing Trends
- Low Carbon Frontrunners
- S. Merchant Frontrunners
- Relative Market Size Of Crude Oil Refined, Vegetable Oils And Low CI
- California State Refineries
  - Biodiesel Refineries
  - Renewable Diesel And Co-Processing Refineries
  - Petroleum Refineries
- Washington State Refineries
  - Petroleum Refineries
  - Potential Washington Refinery Demand

EPA, RFS2, BTC And The Federal Landscape Outlook In The United States (Page 41)
- RFS2 Program Overview
- Program Specifics
- Nesting Provision
- RFS And Rins
- RFS2 Waivers
- RFS2 Reset
- Program Revisions

LCFS Markets Driving Decision Making. California And Oregon Today. Washington In The Works. Midwest And Northeast Rumored. (Page 53)
- California LCFS
- History
- Program Requirements
- Credit Calculation
- LCFS Credit Value In Terms Of Feedstock Cents Per Pound
- LCFS Credit Calculations Per Feedstock Per Dollar
- State Of LCFS
  - Expansion
  - Components
  - Regulated Parties
  - Exemptions
  - Status Of The LCFS
  - Major LCFS Amendment Changes
  - Compliance Schedule For Diesel Fuel, Gasoline, Jet Fuel And Subsititutes
  - Declining Carbon Intensity Curve
  - Diesel Consumption And Deficit Generation
  - LCFS Deficits And Liquid Diesel Fuel Substitute Credits
  - Reliance On Light Duty Vehicle Electrification
- California LCFS Market Data
  - LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Production Volume
  - LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Credit Generation Volume
  - LCFS Banked Credits
  - LCFS Banked Credits Outlook
  - LCFS Market Outlook
  - LCFS CARB Forecast
  - LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Volumes
  - RD/BD Demand Vs Compliance Difficulties
  - Low CI Score Impact On Credit Generation
  - RNG And CNG Credit Generation Vs CARB Projections
  - LCFS Liquid Biofuel Volume Forecast
  - Liquid Biofuel Actual Volumes
  - LCFS Liquid Biofuel Credit Forecast
  - Liquid Biofuel Actual Credits
  - Transforming Feedstock Mix In Renewable Diesel
  - Dominate Feedstocks For Biodiesel
  - Petroleum Elimination Goal

- Oregon Clean Fuels Program
  - CFP History
  - CFP Requirements
  - 3 Ways To Obtain CI Values In CFP
  - Small Importers And Exemptions
  - Oregon Compliance Schedule
  - Monthly Credit Transfer Data
  - North American Markets Considering An LCFS Type Program

- Puget Sound Clean Fuel Standard
  - CFS Purpose And Duty
  - CFS Basics
  - Carbon Intensity Reduction Benchmarks For Diesel, Alternative Jet Fuel And Diesel Substitutes.

Canadian Federal And Provincial LCFS/GHG Market Expansion (Page 116)
- British Columbia LCFS
  - History
  - Requirements
  - Performance

- Canadian Mandates
  - Policy Signals Around Biofuels
  - Federal And Provincial Mandates
  - Outlook
  - Key Elements Of Clean Fuel Standards Regulatory Design
  - North American Market Interplay

Low Carbon Intensity Fats And Oils Markets (Page 128)

- North American Fat Market Synopsis
- North American Beef Packers (Tallow Supply Drivers)
- Cattle Slaughter
- Tallow Production
- Tallow Suppliers
- Tallow Suppliers In Canada
- Tallow Market Drivers
- S. Tallow Production And Consumption
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection

- Independent Renderers
- North American Pork Packers (Choice White Grease Drivers)
- Choice White Grease
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection

- North American Poultry Fat Suppliers
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection

- Yellow Grease And Used Cooking Oil Specifications
- Yellow Grease And UCO Suppliers
- Yellow Grease Production And Consumption
- Yellow Grease And UCO Outlook
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection

- Distillers Corn Oil Market
- Top Corn Oil Producers And Locations
- Distillers Corn Oil Demand And Pricing
- Outlook For Corn Oil
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection

- Low CI Feedstocks: Global Overview
  - Global Tallow Production
  - Global Fats Production
    - Australia And New Zealand
    - Asia
    - South America
    - European Union

- Market Outlook

- Virgin Vegetable And Crop Oil Markets
Crop And Virgin Vegetable Oil Markets (Page 192)
- Market Drivers
- S. Vegetable Oil Grades
- S. Soybean Planted Acreage
- Supply Drivers
- Soybean Crush Margins And Product Prices
- S. Soybean Oil Supply Drivers
- S. Soybean Crushing Facilities
- S. Soybean Oil Trade Flows
- Upper-Middle-Lower Case Scenario
- Long-Term Balance Sheet Analysis And Projections
- Data Sources
- Analysis And Projections
- S. Soybean Oil Production And Consumption
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption

- Canola Oil Pricing
- Canola Oil Crush
- Canola Oil Supply
- North American Canola Crushing Facilities
- S. Canola Oil Usage
- S. Canola Oil Production & Consumption
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption

- Palm Oil Production
- Palm Oil Demand
- World Palm Oil Production And Consumption
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption

- S. Coconut Oil Production And Consumption
- S. Palm Kernel Oil Production And Consumption
- World Lauric Oils Production And Consumption
  - High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
  - Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption

Future Feedstocks And Processing Trends (Page 244)
- Market Intelligence
- Oilseed Crops
- Trends And Research On Oilseed Crops
- Feedstock Readiness
- Oilseed Crops: Lessons Learned
- Microorganisms
- Algae
- Algae Research
- Billion Ton Report
- Commercial Initiatives
- Future Feedstocks Outlook
- Future Conversion Technology
  - Pyrolysis
  - Sugar To Hydrocarbons
  - Fischer Tropsch
- Biomass To Liquids
- Hydrotreating

Appendix (Page 257)
- Forecasted Feedstock Supply Outlook 1 To 20 Year Demand Scenarios
- Feedstock Specifications
- Feedstock Yields
- Upper-Middle-Lower Case Scenarios
- Long-Term Balance Sheets Analysis And Projections

The landscape, technical details, and overlooked information, all in one place.

CARB VS ACTUAL

Historical analysis of CARB’s forecasted credit generation vs actual for the program to date.

COMPARITIVE SCENARIOS

The Jacobsen has created 2 additional case scenarios to explore the larger volume of rumored Renewable Distillate production potentially coming at the market.

PROJECT MONITOR

Announced project monitor – creating timeline for demand increases

BALANCE SHEETS

Low CI Feedstock supply and demand balance sheets and forecasts. Including UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soy and Canola Oil.

Materials Researched, Analyzed and Produced by Our Team of Senior Analyst

John Cusick

Senior Analyst - Biodiesel

John Cusick has 15 years of experience as a trader in biodiesel and biodiesel feedstock. His career has included work for the trading upstart RBF Port Neches, Texas, the largest biodesel production facility in the US, along with Morgan Stanley Commodities, Trafigura, Glencore and Imperium Renewables. He has successfully navigated the complex and challenging relationship ... read more

Bob Lane

Senior Analyst - Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil and Grain

Bob Lane holds an MBA and a BBA in finance from Loyola University in Chicago. He has experience in real estate asset management and spent more than 15 years as a professional analyst and trader for options, futures and equities on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. ... read more

Ryan Standard

Senior Analyst - U.S and Intl Animal Fats & Proteins

Ryan Standard earned a degree in English literature and history from Monmouth College, while maintaining a parallel track in economics. With a background in logistics and sales, he joined The Jacobsen in 2007 as an analyst and the editor of the Animal Fats and Feed Bulletins, and contributor to the Biodiesel Bulletin. He has built ... read more

Frequently Asked Questions

Who should buy this report?

Everyone who participates in the soybean oil, canola oil, and waste oils as well as animal fats markets, given the impact these fuel programs are having on traditional pricing hierarchy. Equity analysts covering LCFS influenced bottom lines, which now range from Major Petroleum Refiners to Renderers and Crushers to Renewable Fuel producers.

What makes this report different?

The Jacobsen has tracked and monitored the LCFS program since it’s inception. We look at how these programs have functioned to date. Our team examins what is happening concerning biofuels and biomass-based diesel where present demand comes to the liquid biomass feedstock market. Using this foundational information, we will use data and advanced modeling to update our years five-year forecast. In addition, The Jacobsen forecasts scenarios based on A) the present swell of Renewable Diesel production anticipated for the 2021 – 2025 period and B) potential for Co-processing technology to further demand in the 2025 – 2030 time frame.

How are your forecasting methods better than others?

We’ve been honing our forecasting over the last few years using an assortment of AI and Machine Learning. Right now our team is up to over 700 data streams that are analyzed and parsed forward. As time goes on, we compare our results to actuals and continually refine our forecast on a weekly basis.

Will I have any time to discuss the findings with The Jacobsen?

Yes, every client gets up to 2 hours of private discussion time with our Senior Analyst team.

Are you providing any subsequent data updates to the forecast?

Yes, we’ll continue the discussion on a weekly basis on our Market Intelligence Report for Biofuels. This is a separate subscription which nicely pairs with the Multi-Client Report.

01.24.2020

Insights: States with Low Carbon Fuel Standards & Those Considering One

Planning Infrastructure Investments in 2020?
You’ll want to read this report!

“The future of agriculture crops and waste products for the production of fuel is the single largest opportunity for struggling US farmers today and it isn’t just Corn and Soybeans.”

– John Cusick, Senior Analyst at The Jacobsen