2020 Outlook - The Jacobsen

Planning Infrastructure Investments in 2020?
You’ll want to read this report!

Our 2020 Outlook Report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasting for the biomass-based diesel and feedstock space.

Our team of Senior Analysts has compiled a comprehensive report on looking forward to 2030.

150+ page slide deck

2 hours of private time with our Senior Analysts (Optional addition)

Balance sheets for UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soybean Oil, and Canola Oil.

Access to our Infrastructure Project Monitor. Looking at new construction, retrofitting, and announcements.

For more information or to purchase the report, please email george@thejacobsen.com or fill out the form below.

We’ve Considered All the Scenarios

The report in three-segments.

CARB Forecasts Implications

We updated our proprietary balance sheets with CARBS projections looking at the impact on LCFS till 2030 and the implications for feedstock balance sheets using CARB’s forecasted demand.

The Jacobsen Forecast

We have updated CARBS forecast with our own methodology, adjusting assumptions to the latest trends. We have included announced, and funded RD projects that shows a significantly larger contribution to the LCFS program than is currently budgeted. We look at the implication from this larger footprint at the feedstock markets.

Aggressive Scenario

Taking our 10 year forecast and factoring in rumors, innuendo, and technologies like co-processing, the size of the market could be significantly larger. We examine how these factors could impact demand.

Table of Contents

Intro: Changing Landscape for Biomass Based Diesel Feedstocks
Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Co-Processing is Coming to the Market
EPA, RFS2, BTC and the Federal Landscape Outlook in the US: 3 Scenario Forecast
LCFS Market Driving Decision Making: CA and OR Today, WA in the Works and Mid West and Northeast Rumored
CA Forecast for Biomass Based Diesel Demand: (2) Alternate Demand Profiles to CARB’s forecasts

Canadian Federal and Provincial LCFS/GHG Market Expansion
Low CI Fats & Oil Markets
Crop and Virgin Veg Oil Markets
Emerging Renewable Distillate Market and Marine Fuel Opportunity
Future Feedstocks and Processing Trends to Watch

Purchase the Report or Request a Sample

The landscape, technical details, and overlooked information, all in one place.

CARB VS ACTUAL

Historical analysis of CARB’s forecasted credit generation vs actual for the program to date.

COMPARITIVE SCENARIOS

The Jacobsen has created 2 additional case scenarios to explore the larger volume of rumored Renewable Distillate production potentially coming at the market.

PROJECT MONITOR

Announced project monitor – creating timeline for demand increases

BALANCE SHEETS

Low CI Feedstock supply and demand balance sheets and forecasts. Including UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soy and Canola Oil.

Materials Researched, Analyzed and Produced by Our Team of Senior Analyst

John Cusick

Senior Analyst - Biodiesel

John Cusick has 15 years of experience as a trader in biodiesel and biodiesel feedstock. His career has included work for the trading upstart RBF Port Neches, Texas, the largest biodesel production facility in the US, along with Morgan Stanley Commodities, Trafigura, Glencore and Imperium Renewables. He has successfully navigated the complex and challenging relationship ... read more

Bob Lane

Senior Analyst - Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil and Grain

Bob Lane holds an MBA and a BBA in finance from Loyola University in Chicago. He has experience in real estate asset management and spent more than 15 years as a professional analyst and trader for options, futures and equities on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. ... read more

Ryan Standard

Senior Analyst - U.S and Intl Animal Fats & Proteins

Ryan Standard earned a degree in English literature and history from Monmouth College, while maintaining a parallel track in economics. With a background in logistics and sales, he joined The Jacobsen in 2007 as an analyst and the editor of the Animal Fats and Feed Bulletins, and contributor to the Biodiesel Bulletin. He has built ... read more

Frequently Asked Questions

Who should buy this report?

Everyone who participates in the soybean oil, canola oil, and waste oils as well as animal fats markets, given the impact these fuel programs are having on traditional pricing hierarchy. Equity analysts covering LCFS influenced bottom lines, which now range from Major Petroleum Refiners to Renderers and Crushers to Renewable Fuel producers.

What makes this report different?

The Jacobsen has tracked and monitored the LCFS program since it’s inception. We look at how these programs have functioned to date. Our team examins what is happening concerning biofuels and biomass-based diesel where present demand comes to the liquid biomass feedstock market. Using this foundational information, we will use data and advanced modeling to update our years five-year forecast. In addition, The Jacobsen forecasts scenarios based on A) the present swell of Renewable Diesel production anticipated for the 2021 – 2025 period and B) potential for Co-processing technology to further demand in the 2025 – 2030 time frame.

How are your forecasting methods better than others?

We’ve been honing our forecasting over the last few years using an assortment of AI and Machine Learning. Right now our team is up to over 700 data streams that are analyzed and parsed forward. As time goes on, we compare our results to actuals and continually refine our forecast on a weekly basis.

Will I have any time to discuss the findings with The Jacobsen?

Yes, every client gets up to 2 hours of private discussion time with our Senior Analyst team.

Are you providing any subsequent data updates to the forecast?

Yes, we’ll continue the discussion on a weekly basis on our Market Intelligence Report for Biofuels. This is a separate subscription which nicely pairs with the Multi-Client Report.

09.23.2019

Thoughts from the Frontlines of the Low Carbon Fuel Revolution

Planning Infrastructure Investments in 2020?
You’ll want to read this report!

“The future of agriculture crops and waste products for the production of fuel is the single largest opportunity for struggling US farmers today and it isn’t just Corn and Soybeans.”

– John Cusick, Senior Analyst at The Jacobsen