Our team of Senior Analysts has compiled a comprehensive report on the biomass-based fuels market looking ahead till 2030.
Synopsis
Major refiners have started the conversion to renewable fuels. This monumental change will exert pressure on the feedstock market. This report looks at the fundamentals behind this change including supply & demand, forecasting stocks, governmental policy implications as well as a deeper dig into the project currently underway plus those rumored on the horizon. 300+ Pages.
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“The future of agriculture crops and waste products for the production of fuel is the single largest opportunity for struggling US farmers today and it isn’t just Corn and Soybeans.”
– John Cusick, Senior Analyst at The Jacobsen
We’ve Modeled The Scenarios For You
CARB Forecasts Implications
We updated our proprietary balance sheets with CARBS projections looking at the impact on LCFS till 2030 and the implications for feedstock balance sheets using CARB’s forecasted demand.
The Jacobsen Forecast
We have updated CARBS forecast with our own methodology, adjusting assumptions to the latest trends. We have included announced, and funded RD projects that shows a significantly larger contribution to the LCFS program than is currently budgeted. We look at the implication from this larger footprint at the feedstock markets.
Aggressive Scenario
Taking our 10 year forecast and factoring in rumors, innuendo, and technologies like co-processing, the size of the market could be significantly larger. We examine how these factors could impact demand.
Full Table of Contents
Introduction: Jacobsen 10 Year Fuel Demand
Year Jacobsen Demand Forecast for North American Liquid Biomass Feedstock
The Jacobsen Processing Capacity Forecasts for: Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Co-Processing Production
10 Years Credit Forecasts: D4 RIN, CA LCFS & OR LCFS
Emerging Renewable Distillate: Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Co-Processing Is Advancing To The Market.
2020 Market Developments
Renewable Diesel projects announcements
“How is it all going to work”
How the Feedstock Market must react
Biomass Based Diesel Market Structure
“HOBO Spread” 5 Year Historical
RIN Prices
Treatment Via U.S. Incentives
Processing Evolution Of Liquid Biomass Feedstocks
Coming Soon And Rumored Renewable Diesel Production
EU and Global RD / HVO Monitor
Co-Processing
Check in on Low Carbon Frontrunners
Check in on Merchant Refinery Conversion Frontrunners
US Demand:
Biodiesel Refineries
Renewable Diesel And Co-Processing Refineries
US Demand 2025:
Petroleum Refineries Co-Processing or Converted
Biodiesel Refineries
Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel
EPA, RFS2, BTC And The Federal Landscape Outlook In The United States.
RFS2 Program Overview
Program Specifics
Nesting Provision
RFS And RINS
RFS2 Waivers
RFS2 Reset
LCFS Markets Driving Decision Making: California And Oregon Today. Washington In The Works. Midwest And Northeast Now In Motion.
California LCFS
LCFS History
LCFS CARB Forecast
Program Requirements
Credit Calculation
LCFS Credit Value In Terms Of Feedstock Cents Per Pound
LCFS Credit Calculations Per Feedstock Per Dollar
Status Of LCFS
Expansion
Components
Regulated Parties
Exemptions
Major LCFS Amendment Changes
Compliance Schedule For Diesel Fuel, Gasoline, Jet Fuel And their Substitutes
Declining Carbon Intensity Curve
Diesel Consumption And Deficit Generation
LCFS Deficits And Liquid Diesel Fuel Substitute Credits
Reliance On Light Duty Vehicle Electrification
California LCFS Market Data
LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Production Volume
LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Credit Generation Volume
LCFS Banked Credits
LCFS Banked Credits Outlook
LCFS Market Outlook
LCFS Biodiesel And Renewable Diesel Volumes
RD/BD Demand Vs Compliance Difficulties
Low CI Score Impact On Credit Generation
RNG And CNG Credit Generation Vs CARB Projections
LCFS Liquid Biofuel Volume Forecast
Liquid Biofuel Actual Volumes
LCFS Liquid Biofuel Credit Forecast
Liquid Biofuel Actual Credits
Transforming Feedstock Mix In Renewable Diesel
Dominate Feedstocks For Biodiesel
Petroleum Elimination Goal
California Market Snapshot
California LCFS Summary
Oregon Clean Fuels Program
Oregon Market Snapshot
Oregon Clean Fuel Program Overview
CFP History
CFP Requirements
3 Ways To Obtain CI Values In CFP
Small Importers And Exemptions
Oregon Compliance Schedule
Monthly Credit Transfer Data
North American Markets Considering An LCFS Type Program
Puget Sound Clean Fuel Standard
Washington Market Snapshot
Washington Forecast
Washington State and Puget Sound -Proposed
CFS Purpose And Duty
CFS Basics
Carbon Intensity Reduction Benchmarks For Diesel, Alternative Jet Fuel And Diesel Substitutes.
New York Clean Fuel Standard
Colorado Clean Fuel Standard
Utah Clean Fuel Standard
Midwest Clean Fuel Standard IA, SD, & MN
Brazil Clean Fuel Standard
Canadian Federal And Provincial LCFS/GHG Market Expansion
Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard
British Columbia LCFS
History
Requirements
Performance
Crop And Virgin Vegetable Oil Markets
Market Drivers
S. Vegetable Oil Grades
Vegetable Oil Refining Facilities
S. Soybean Planted Acreage
Soybean Crush Margins And Product Prices
S. Soybean Oil Supply Drivers
S. Soybean Oil Trade Flows
S. Soybean Oil Production and Processing
Soybean Processing Expansion
Soybean Processing Economics
Investment with Feedstock Upgrading
S. Soybean Oil Production And Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
North American Canola Crushing Facilities
Canola Oil Pricing
Canola Oil Crush
Canola Oil Supply
S. Canola Oil Usage
S. Canola Oil Production & Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
Low Biomass Based Diesel Consumption
North American Fat Market Synopsis
North American Beef Packers (Tallow Supply Drivers)
North American Tallow Production
North American Tallow Suppliers
Tallow Suppliers In Canada
Tallow Market Drivers
Independent Tallow Renderers
Cattle Slaughter
Tallow Rendering Facilities
Technical Tallow Historicals
S. West Coast Bleachable Fancy Tallow Historicals
S. West Coast (Export) Tallow Historicals
S. Tallow Production And Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Distillers Corn Oil Market
Top Corn Oil Producers And Locations
Distillers Corn Oil Demand And Pricing
S. & Canada Ethanol Plants
Distiller’s Corn Oil IL (Benchmark) Historicals
S. Corn Oil Production and Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Outlook for Used Cooking Oil and Yellow Grease
COVID Update
Used Cooking Oil IL (Benchmark) Historicals
UCO North And South California Historicals
Yellow Grease Dlvd CA Historicals
Yellow Grease And Used Cooking Oil Specifications
Yellow Grease And UCO Suppliers
Yellow Grease & UCO Outlook
S. Yellow Grease And UCO Production & Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
North America Choice White Grease
North American Pork Packers (Choice White Grease Drivers)
North American Choice White & Lard Suppliers
Choice White Grease Oil IL (Benchmark) Historicals
S. Choice White Grease Production & Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Low Biomass Based Diesel Projection
North American Poultry Fat Suppliers
S. Poultry Fat Production & Consumption
High Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Mid Biomass Based Diesel Projection
Low Biomass Based Diesel ProjectionLow Carbon Intensity Fats And Oils Markets
Agriculture Industry Snapshot
ADM Soybean and Canola Oil Production & Processing
ADM North American Infrastructure
AGP Soybean Production & Processing
AGP North American Infrastructure
Bunge Soybean Production & Processing
Bunge North American Infrastructure
Cargill Soybean and Canola Oil Production & Processing
Cargill North American Infrastructure
Louis Dreyfus Soybean Oil Production & Processing
Miscellaneous Soybean Plants
Canola Processing Plants
Soy/Canola Oil Refining Capacity
Miscellaneous Soy/Canola Oil Refining Capacity
International Feedstock Market
Global Tallow Production
Global Fats Production
Australia & New Zealand
Asia
South America
Europe
Market Outlook
Future Feedstocks And Processing Trends
Market Intelligence
Oilseed Crops
Trends And Research On Oilseed Crops
Feedstock Readiness
Oilseed Crops: Lessons Learned
Microorganisms
Algae
Algae Research
Billion Ton Report
Commercial Initiatives
Future Feedstocks Outlook
Future Conversion Technology
Pyrolysis
Sugar To Hydrocarbons
Fischer Tropsch
Biomass To Liquids
Hydrotreating
Appendix
Feedstock Specifications
Feedstock Yields
Upper-Middle-Lower Case Scenarios
Long-Term Balance Sheets Analysis And Projections
The landscape, technical details, and overlooked information, all in one place.
CARB VS ACTUAL
Historical analysis of CARB’s forecasted credit generation vs actual for the program to date.
COMPARITIVE SCENARIOS
The Jacobsen has created 2 additional case scenarios to explore the larger volume of rumored Renewable Distillate production potentially coming at the market.
PROJECT MONITOR
Announced project monitor – creating timeline for demand increases
BALANCE SHEETS
Low CI Feedstock supply and demand balance sheets and forecasts. Including UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soy and Canola Oil.
844+
DATA STREAMS
52+
DISCUSSIONS WITH INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT INSIDERS
Materials Researched, Analyzed and Produced by Our Team of Senior Analyst
John Cusick
Consulting Manager / Sr. Analyst Biodiesel
John Cusick has 15 years of experience as a trader in biodiesel and biodiesel feedstock. His career has included work for the trading upstart RBF Port Neches, Texas, the largest biodesel production facility in the US, along with Morgan Stanley Commodities, Trafigura, Glencore and Imperium Renewables. He has successfully navigated the complex and challenging relationship ... read more
John Cusick
Consulting Manager / Sr. Analyst Biodiesel
John Cusick has 15 years of experience as a trader in biodiesel and biodiesel feedstock. His career has included work for the trading upstart RBF Port Neches, Texas, the largest biodesel production facility in the US, along with Morgan Stanley Commodities, Trafigura, Glencore and Imperium Renewables. He has successfully navigated the complex and challenging relationship between agricultural inputs and energy outputs woven into the fabric of regulatory credits.
Bob Lane
Senior Analyst - Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil and Grain
Bob Lane holds an MBA and a BBA in finance from Loyola University in Chicago. He has experience in real estate asset management and spent more than 15 years as a professional analyst and trader for options, futures and equities on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. ... read more
Bob Lane
Senior Analyst - Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil and Grain
Bob Lane holds an MBA and a BBA in finance from Loyola University in Chicago. He has experience in real estate asset management and spent more than 15 years as a professional analyst and trader for options, futures and equities on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Bob is a commodity analyst and editor of the Biodiesel and Grain & Feed Bulletins for The Jacobsen.
Ryan Standard
Director of PRA Ops & Senior Analyst - U.S and Intl Animal Fats & Proteins
Ryan Standard earned a degree in English literature and history from Monmouth College, while maintaining a parallel track in economics. With a background in logistics and sales, he joined The Jacobsen in 2007 as an analyst and the editor of the Animal Fats and Feed Bulletins, and contributor to the Biodiesel Bulletin. He has built ... read more
Ryan Standard
Director of PRA Ops & Senior Analyst - U.S and Intl Animal Fats & Proteins
Ryan Standard earned a degree in English literature and history from Monmouth College, while maintaining a parallel track in economics. With a background in logistics and sales, he joined The Jacobsen in 2007 as an analyst and the editor of the Animal Fats and Feed Bulletins, and contributor to the Biodiesel Bulletin. He has built a solid, reliable network of sources to inform his industry analysis.
Tore Alden
Dir. Forecasting/Sr. Analyst: Oilseeds
Tore Alden began his career as an analyst for the Agricultural Marketing Group at Smith Barney. When the group left to form International Agribusiness Group (IAG), he directed the firm’s fundamental research reports covering the markets for grain, oilseed, coffee, frozen concentrated orange juice, along with oil and natural gas. After leaving IAG, he developed ... read more
Tore Alden
Dir. Forecasting/Sr. Analyst: Oilseeds
Tore Alden began his career as an analyst for the Agricultural Marketing Group at Smith Barney. When the group left to form International Agribusiness Group (IAG), he directed the firm’s fundamental research reports covering the markets for grain, oilseed, coffee, frozen concentrated orange juice, along with oil and natural gas. After leaving IAG, he developed and implemented trading strategies for grain, oilseed and livestock for a hedge fund. Before joining The Jacobsen, he covered the oilseed complex for Informa Economics. Tore covers the Vegetable Oils Bulletin for The Jacobsen.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who should buy this report?
Everyone who participates in the soybean oil, canola oil, and waste oils as well as animal fats markets, given the impact these fuel programs are having on traditional pricing hierarchy. Equity analysts covering LCFS influenced bottom lines, which now range from Major Petroleum Refiners to Renderers and Crushers to Renewable Fuel producers.
What makes this report different?
The Jacobsen has tracked and monitored the LCFS program since it’s inception. We look at how these programs have functioned to date. Our team examins what is happening concerning biofuels and biomass-based diesel where present demand comes to the liquid biomass feedstock market. Using this foundational information, we will use data and advanced modeling to update our years five-year forecast. In addition, The Jacobsen forecasts scenarios based on A) the present swell of Renewable Diesel production anticipated for the 2021 – 2025 period and B) potential for Co-processing technology to further demand in the 2025 – 2030 time frame.
How are your forecasting methods better than others?
We’ve been honing our forecasting over the last few years using an assortment of AI and Machine Learning. Right now our team is up to over 700 data streams that are analyzed and parsed forward. As time goes on, we compare our results to actuals and continually refine our forecast on a weekly basis.
Will I have any time to discuss the findings with The Jacobsen?
Yes, every client gets up to 2 hours of private discussion time with our Senior Analyst team.
Are you providing any subsequent data updates to the forecast?
Yes, we’ll continue the discussion on a weekly basis on our Market Intelligence Report for Biofuels. This is a separate subscription which nicely pairs with the Multi-Client Report.
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03.02.2021
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