Renewable Fuels & Feedstocks Outlook

Renewable Fuels & Feedstocks Outlook

Last Updated: 08.20.2021

Our team of Senior Analysts has compiled a comprehensive report on the biomass-based fuels market looking ahead till 2030.

Synopsis

Major refiners have started the conversion to renewable fuels. This monumental change will exert pressure on the feedstock market. This report looks at the fundamentals behind this change including supply & demand, forecasting stocks, governmental policy implications as well as a deeper dig into the project currently underway plus those rumored on the horizon. 300+ Pages.

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  • Upgrade with our Pro Plan which includes weekly Price Forecasting updates.

Major Sections

  • 10 Year Fuel Demand
  • RD and Sustainable Aviation Fuel & Co-Processing.
  • RFS2, BTC and Federal Landscape
  • LCFS and Similar Programs
  • Canadian Federal and Provincial Market Expansion
  • Crop and Veg Oil Markets
  • Low Carbon Intensity Fats & Oils Market
  • Agriculture Industry Snapshot
  • International Feedstock Market
  • Future Feedstocks and Processing Trends

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“The future of agriculture crops and waste products for the production of fuel is the single largest opportunity for struggling US farmers today and it isn’t just Corn and Soybeans.”

– John Cusick, Senior Analyst at The Jacobsen

We’ve Modeled The Scenarios For You

CARB Forecasts Implications

We updated our proprietary balance sheets with CARBS projections looking at the impact on LCFS till 2030 and the implications for feedstock balance sheets using CARB’s forecasted demand.

The Jacobsen Forecast

We have updated CARBS forecast with our own methodology, adjusting assumptions to the latest trends.  We have included announced, and funded RD projects that shows a significantly larger contribution to the LCFS program than is currently budgeted.  We look at the implication from this larger footprint at the feedstock markets.

Aggressive Scenario

Taking our 10 year forecast and factoring in rumors, innuendo, and technologies like co-processing, the size of the market could be significantly larger. We examine how these factors could impact demand.


Full Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Forecasts 

Forecasted 10 Year Fuel Demand

Processing Forecasts

The Jacobsen Credit Forecast

Section 1: Renewable Fuels Project Tracker

  • 2023 Volume Projections by Type
  • Renewable Diesel Project Tracker
  • Renewable Diesel Conversion Efforts
  • Renewable Diesel Production
  • Renewable Diesel Production (Coming / Rumored)
  • EU Conversion Renewable Diesel / HVO
  • EU Co-Processing

Section 2: Crop & Virgin Vegetable Oil Markets

  • Summary
  • Balance Sheet Forecasts
  • Vegetable Oils
  • Soybean Oil
  • Canola Oil

Section 3: Low Carbon Intensity Fats & Oils

  • Overview
  • Choice White Grease
  • Poultry Fat
  • Used Cooking Oil / Yellow Grease
  • Inedible Tallow
  • Distiller’s Corn Oil
  • US Biomass Based Diesel Feedstocks

Section 4: California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

  • Historical View – 2011 to Present
  • Compliance Schedule for Diesel Fuel and Their Substitutes
  • Declining Carbon Intensity Curve
  • Credit Generation by Fuel Type
  • LCFS Credit and Deficit Generation

The landscape, technical details, and overlooked information, all in one place.

CARB VS ACTUAL

Historical analysis of CARB’s forecasted credit generation vs actual for the program to date.

COMPARITIVE SCENARIOS

The Jacobsen has created 2 additional case scenarios to explore the larger volume of rumored Renewable Distillate production potentially coming at the market.

PROJECT MONITOR

Announced project monitor – creating timeline for demand increases

BALANCE SHEETS

Low CI Feedstock supply and demand balance sheets and forecasts. Including UCO, Tallow, DCO, Soy and Canola Oil.

844+

DATA STREAMS

52+

DISCUSSIONS WITH INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT INSIDERS

Materials Researched, Analyzed and Produced by Our Team of Senior Analyst

Bob Lane

Senior Analyst - Biodiesel, Vegetable Oil and Grain

Bob Lane

Bob Lane holds an MBA and a BBA in finance from Loyola University in Chicago. He has experience in real estate asset management and spent more than 15 years as a professional analyst and trader for options, futures and equities on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. ... read more

Ryan Standard

Director of PRA Ops & Senior Analyst - U.S and Intl Animal Fats & Proteins

Ryan Standard

Ryan Standard earned a degree in English literature and history from Monmouth College, while maintaining a parallel track in economics. With a background in logistics and sales, he joined The Jacobsen in 2007 as an analyst and the editor of the Animal Fats and Feed Bulletins, and contributor to the Biodiesel Bulletin. He has built ... read more

Tore Alden

Dir. Forecasting/Sr. Analyst:  Oilseeds

Tore Alden

Tore Alden began his career as an analyst for the Agricultural Marketing Group at Smith Barney. When the group left to form International Agribusiness Group (IAG), he directed the firm’s fundamental research reports covering the markets for grain, oilseed, coffee, frozen concentrated orange juice, along with oil and natural gas. After leaving IAG, he developed ... read more

Frequently Asked Questions

Who should buy this report? Everyone who participates in the soybean oil, canola oil, and waste oils as well as animal fats markets, given the impact these fuel programs are having on traditional pricing hierarchy. Equity analysts covering LCFS influenced bottom lines, which now range from Major Petroleum Refiners to Renderers and Crushers to Renewable Fuel producers.
What makes this report different?  The Jacobsen has tracked and monitored the LCFS program since it’s inception. We look at how these programs have functioned to date. Our team examins what is happening concerning biofuels and biomass-based diesel where present demand comes to the liquid biomass feedstock market. Using this foundational information, we will use data and advanced modeling to update our years five-year forecast. In addition, The Jacobsen forecasts scenarios based on A) the present swell of Renewable Diesel production anticipated for the 2021 – 2025 period and B) potential for Co-processing technology to further demand in the 2025 – 2030 time frame.
How are your forecasting methods better than others? We’ve been honing our forecasting over the last few years using an assortment of AI and Machine Learning. Right now our team is up to over 700 data streams that are analyzed and parsed forward. As time goes on, we compare our results to actuals and continually refine our forecast on a weekly basis.
Will I have any time to discuss the findings with The Jacobsen? Yes, every client gets up to 2 hours of private discussion time with our Senior Analyst team.
Are you providing any subsequent data updates to the forecast? Yes, we’ll continue the discussion on a weekly basis on our Market Intelligence Report for Biofuels. This is a separate subscription which nicely pairs with the Multi-Client Report.

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