12.20.2024
45z guidance fails to appear; government scrambles to pass spending bill
The US government spending bill failed twice in as many days. If a deal is not reached by midnight on Friday December 20, some federal services will...
Ruminant MBM traded $450 – 510 into the Indonesian market over the last week. Trading in the $495 – 510 range was reported from the ANZ market. Sources have reported that export availability out of those markets remains extremely tight due to limited slaughter. Sellers finding buyers in need of smaller parcels delivered quickly are able to fetch prices at the higher end of the range. With domestic US pricing as low as $195/MT FOB, the $450 – 470 CIF range works very well for US sellers and confirms the buyers reports of continued offers in the $450 neighborhood despite trading happening above the $500 mark.
Trading into China was done at higher levels, $485 – 490 CIF. Trading into Thailand was reported at $515 and sources have reported strong interest from Vietnam. Early chatter in regards to the US election was that buyers may start to pick up their demand ahead of a perceived trade war. President-elect Trump rode a hard protectionist platform and buyers in Asia are worried that potential tariffs on goods could spill into the feed ingredient markets.
Australian export values were higher on MBM, AUS$600 – 630. Sources continue to report tight supplies and many have suggested that not a lot of material is leaving the country. Kills remain very tight and local demand is gobbling up a significant portion of the supply. Pet grade poultry meal was reported steay at AUS$1050 for export.
Trading out of the NZ market was done in a wide range at a lower average, NZ$600 – 650 for 50 pro material. Sources commented that the decline was a combination of a stronger NZ$ as well as the withdraw of some short covering demand from the traders. Sellers continue to report long positions at NZ$700 or better.
Protein values for US exports were unchanged into SEA. Sources selling into that region from other countries have reported higher numbers, but US sellers are comfortable at current levels given the low prices in the US interior. Sources in SEA reported offers for FM as low as $480 out of the US, but sellers in the ANZ markets have seen prices as high as $550 CIF. PFG PBM was similar with trading reported from non-US sellers as high as $810 CIF.
The local US ruminant MBM markets are trading in a wide range, anywhere from $175 – 230/ST or $193 – 254/MT FOB interior. Sellers with good relationships into nearby buyers have been able to fetch prices at the top end of the range, while those loading into rail cars and those looking to unload extra material are seeing prices in that $193 – 205/MT range. Cattle and hog kills continue along at a strong pace, but the US is just two short weeks away from the Thanksgiving holiday and a slow, slaughter week.
Feathermeal trading was mostly sideways in the interior over the last week. Interior values are trading in a range of $330 – 385/MT FOB. Sellers were a bit more optimistic last week, but uncertainty has crept in again as supplies remain strong. Pet grade poultry meal prices are firming as demand remains very strong and 2017 contract volumes look very good. Spot tightness seems likely in the new year and with it, higher prices.
US Animal Protein Exports
Protein exports for both inedible meatmeal and feathermeal were off from August totals. IE MM fell by 11.2 TMT to 34,517, which is on par with the average tonnage for the Jan – Jul period. Big drops were seen into the top three importing market, Indonesia, Mexico and Canada. Indonesia saw the biggest drop at 2,895 tons. FM trading was down as well with reductions into Indonesia, Chile and China.