Weather Concerns Rattle Markets

Weather Concerns Rattle Markets

Soybean futures continued higher on a weekly basis for a fifth straight week, reaching highs not seen since May of 2018. The November and January futures contracts climbed nearly 15 percent during the period. Prices are being buoyed by weather and export activity. Frost damage became a concern for the first time in many years with temperatures dipping to frost levels in North Dakota and Minnesota. Strong export demand to China in recent weeks has helped to support pricing.  Soybean prices climbed 28 cents per bushel for the November futures contract and 25.75 cents for January. Price resistance is seen at $10.17 versus support at $9.66 for the November futures contract. Friday’s close was 97 cents per bushel over values from a month ago and 46 cents above pricing two weeks back. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed managed money increased net long holdings seven percent to 173,907 contracts.

Soybean meal futures pushed higher for a third consecutive week, gaining 2.5 percent in value for the October future contract.  The October soybean meal price pushed $7.80 per ton higher to $319.90, while the December contract gained $7.40 to $324.60 per ton. October meal prices are $25.80 per ton over values from a month ago and $15.80 above pricing two weeks back. Price support is seen at $321 and resistance at $341. Hedge fund managers increased net long holdings 102 percent to 32,119 last week.

Corn futures rallied three percent, more than offsetting the slight decline seen the week prior. Hot dry weather was replaced by rainfall across much of the Midwest, which could improve soil moisture levels in some drought stressed regions. Price support may manifest at $3.65 versus resistance at $3.83.  Ethanol production pushed to a six-week high at 941 thousand barrels per day on improved margins – the next ethanol production report will face declining margins for the week of Sept 11. Corn futures are 31 cents per bushel over values from a month ago and nine cents per bushel above prices from two weeks back. Friday’s COT report showed managed money continued to aggressively reduce short exposure, shedding 21,898 short contracts and and increasing net long exposure 80 percent to 33,494 contracts.

Wheat futures moved lower on a weekly basis for the first time in five weeks.  Squaring of positions ahead of last Friday’s WASDE report and concerns of large global stocks aided in prices edging lower for the week. Wheat values slipped 1.5 percent for the December futures contract. December wheat is 33 cents per bushel over values from a month ago but down seven cents per bushel from two weeks ago. Price support is at $5.40 with resistance at $5.63.  Hedge Funds reduced net long holdings 29 percent to 23,175 contracts.

 

 

 

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