Weekly Export Activity Slows, China Demand Remains Strong

Weekly soybean export sales for the 2020/21 marketing year of 37 thousand metric tons (TMT), a marketing year low, were 658.4 TMT below last week’s total and 94 percent under the four-week average of 598 TMT. There were 79.8 TMT in sales recorded for the 2021/22 crop season, lifting total sales to 116.8 TMT.  Combined crop year sales were 88 percent below last week’s total and below analyst estimates that ranged from 400 to 925 TMT. 2020/21 export commitments are 91 percent of the USDA forecast. Export sales are 84 percent above the 2019/20 crop year pace. Major purchases were reported for Germany, China, and Spain.

Soybean meal sales for the 2020/21 marketing year of 124.1 TMT were 47.9 TMT over last week but 32 percent below the prior four-week average of 181 TMT. There were 700 metric tons in sales recorded for the 2021/22 crop season, lifting total sales to 124.8 TMT. Combined crop year sales were 64 percent above last week’s report and within analyst expectations that ranged from 75 to 250 TMT. Accumulated export commitments are 47 percent of forecast. Sales are six percent above last season’s pace. Major purchases were made by Viet Nam, Bangladesh, and Costa Rica.

Soybean oil 2020/21 export sales of 3.5 TMT were 57.2 TMT below last week’s volume and 86 percent below the four-week average of 24 TMT. No sales were recorded for the 2021/22 crop season, leaving total sales to 3.5 TMT. Combined season sales were below analyst expectations that ranged from 20 to 65 TMT. 2020/21 marketing year commitments are 39 percent of forecast and need to average 20 TMT per week to meet projections. Soybean oil sales are 15 percent above last season’s pace. Major purchases were made by Mexico, Haiti, and Columbia.

Weekly corn export sales for the 2020/21 marketing year of 748.9 TMT, were 216 TMT below last week and 39 percent below the prior four-week average of 1,226 TMT. No sales were recorded for the 2021/22 crop season, leaving total sales to 748.9 TMT Combined sales were 22 percent below last week but within analyst expectations that ranged from 600 to 1,200 TMT. Increases were reported for Mexico, Japan, and China. 2020/21 export commitments are 65 percent of the USDA’s latest revised forecast. Export sales this season are 137 percent over the 2019/20 pace.

Wheat export sales for the 2020/21 marketing year of 275,300 metric tons, were 245 TMT below last week’s volume and 47 percent under the prior four-week average.  There were six TMT in sales recorded for the 2021/22 crop season, lifting total sales to 281.3 TMT. Combined sales were 46 percent below last week’s but within analyst expectations that ranged from 250 to 500 TMT. Export commitments are 75 percent of the 2020/21 USDA forecast and need to average 284 TMT per week to meet projections. Sales are 10 percent above last year’s pace. Major purchases were made by Taiwan, China, and Mexico.