EIA Forecast Shows Possible 1.4 Billion RIN Surplus for 2023

EIA Forecast Shows Possible 1.4 Billion RIN Surplus for 2023

The RFS renewable volume obligations (RVOs) issued by the EPA provide percentage standards that are applied to a forecast available back at that point in time. The percentage standards translate into volumes based on the estimated consumption forecast. The actual RVOs only become known over time but use the same percentage standards that were applied to the original estimated volumes.

Reviewing the October STEO and applying the appropriate percentage standards, 2023 gasoline consumption has fallen from the original estimate and has lowered the implied ethanol mandate from 15 billion gallons to 14.81 billion gallons. The implied ethanol mandate, plus the supplemental mandate, are currently above the projected 2023 ethanol consumption forecast of 14.10 billion gallons. This implies an ethanol blend gap of 950 million RINs, which is up from the 910 million RIN shortfall projected following the September STEO.

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