The RFS renewable volume obligations (RVOs) issued by the EPA provide percentage standards that are applied to the initial forecast available at that time. The percentage standards translate into volumes based on the estimated consumption forecast. The actual RVOs only become known over time but use the same percentage standards applied to the original estimated volumes.

Reviewing the November STEO and applying the appropriate percentage standards, 2023 gasoline consumption has fallen from the original estimate and has lowered the implied ethanol mandate from 15 billion gallons to 14.90 billion gallons. The implied ethanol mandate, plus the supplemental mandate, are currently above projected 2023 ethanol consumption forecast of 14.18 billion gallons. This implies an ethanol blend gap of 970 million RINs, which is up from the 950 million RIN shortfall projected from the October STEO release.

…