Historical prices of organic soybean meal have made it very difficult for consumers to pull the trigger on coverage. Ahead of the Indian and U.S. harvests, organic soybeans in India usually trade at their lowest levels of the year. Merchandisers tell The Jacobsen that historically, organic soybean meal from India is trading near $600 per metric ton FOB. Consumers are so used to these low prices that they are willing to hold off on locking in higher costs and live hand-to-mouth.

As you can see from the chart of India conventional soybeans in $/MT, the seasonal low point for prices is usually during the summer. The chart below uses data from the NCDEX going back to 2017 and through 2020. The data is converted into dollars per metric ton. The dates below represent the average price per week for each week during 2017-2020 (despite the label that shows just 2017). Historically organic soybeans trade as a premium to conventional soybeans.

The scary part of the…