India soybean prices surged on the NCDEX. In September, prices tumbled from a high near $1,200 per metric ton to a low near $700. The term structure of Indian soybeans always showed that prices were expected to fall as deferred contracts showed a very wide inversion. Indian soybean prices have increased by more than $100 per metric ton this week.

The move should put upward pressure on organic soybean meal prices, which have moved up slightly to $920 per metric ton. This number compares to Chinese organic soybean meal, which is currently quoted near $1000 FOB China. From both destinations, shipping costs remain elevated, and bulk vessels are likely the only way to get OSBM to the United States in a cost-effective manner. The rally in Indian soybean prices comes as U.S. domestic prices remain flat.

Exports of products from India have declined substantially. According to the Soybean Processors Association of India, the export of soybean meal in October…