Crop Progress  – 13.4 Billion Bushels of Corn & 3.9 Billion Bushels of Soybeans Harvested

The November World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released by the USDA reflected a reduced yield per harvested acre and lower production for corn and soybeans. The U.S. corn yield per harvested acre was reduced from 178.4 bushels to 175.8.  The reduced yield lowered the production forecast by 215 million bushels to 14.507 billion. Feed and residual use was reduced 75 million bushels to 5.7 billion.  Given the strong export activity so far this year, the export forecast was increased 325 million bushels to 2.65 billion.  Corn used for ethanol production was unchanged at 5.05 billion bushels.  Lower supply and increased export activity resulted in ending stocks forecast 465 million bushels lower to 1.702 billion.  The average price per bushel of corn is forecast at $4.00 per bushel, up from $3.60 in October.

This month’s U.S. soybean outlook lowered the expected yield per harvested acre from 51.9 bushels to 50.7.  The production forecast fell from 4.268 billion bushels to 4.17 billion, a 98-million-bushel decline from October. Lower yields were reported for several major producing states, including Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and Nebraska. The soybean crush was left unchanged at 2.18 billion bushels.  Soybean ending stocks are projected 100 million bushels lower at 190 million.  If realized, soybean ending stocks will be at the lowest level in the past seven years.  The average soybean price forecast was raised from $9.8 per bushel to $10.40.

Soybean oil ending stocks for the 2019/20 crop season were increased 109 million pounds due to increased supply and reduced food, feed, and other industrial use.  An increase in soybean oil demand by the biodiesel industry partially offset some of the decline in the food, feed and industrial sector.  The increase in 2019/20 ending stocks translated into an increase in the 2020/21 ending stock forecast by 109 million pounds to 1.864 billion.

Soybean meal ending stocks for the 2019/20 season were adjusted 59,000 short tons lower to 341,000. This lowered the 2020/21 beginning stock forecast by 59,000 short tons. The reduction was partially offset by a forecasted 9,000 short ton increase in production.  The 2020/21 ending stocks projection for soybean meal was reduced 50,000 short tons to 350,000.